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The Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index measures shipping activity of raw materials around the world. In particular, the BDI provides a very efficient way to quantify and evaluate the strength of the global demand for commodities and raw materials. The Baltic Dry Index is compiled, on a daily basis, by the Baltic Exchange, and it is built thanks to the information gathered from the largest dry bulk shippers worldwide. Specifically, the Baltic Exchange collects the prices applied by dry bulk shippers for more than 20 shipping routes all over the world. The BDI is actually an average of 4 different components: The Baltic Capesize Index, The Baltic Panamax Index, the Baltic Supramax Index and the Baltic Handysize Index. What these indices are and what do they track? The fluctuations of the aforementioned indices are based upon the activity of 4 different types of ships: the Handysize, the Supramax, the Panamax and the Capemax. Let’s analyze them one at the time in order to highlight the difference among them:

1) Handysize Ships: they account for approximately 34% of the global fleet and can carry 15,000–35,000 dead weight tons of cargo

2) Supramax Ships: they account for approximately 37% of the global fleet and can carry 45,000–59,000 dead weight tons of cargo

3) Panamax Ships: they account for approximately 19% of the global fleet and can carry 60,000–80,000 dead weight tons of cargo. Panamax ships are the largest ships allowed through the Panama Canal

4) Capemax Ships: they account for approximately 10% of the global fleet and can carry more than 100,000 dead weight tons of cargo and they are too big to pass through the Panama Canal

As previously mentioned, every index is specifically created to keep track of the commercial activity connected to the 4 most important type of ship and this is precisely why the BDI is built upon them. Mathematically, the Baltic Dry Index is calculated using the following formula:

BDI = ((CapesizeTCavg + PanamaxTCavg + SupramaxTCavg + HandysizeTCavg) / 4 ) * 0.113473601)

The 0.113473601 is the multiplier introduced to standardize the calculation while the TCavg refers to the Time Charter average. Time Chartering is simply one of the ways to charter a tramp ship. Specifically, the charter will “book” the ship that best fits the size of the cargo for a specific period of time and for a pre–defined route. The hiring fees are expressed on a “per–ton” basis because they are structured on the amount of dead weight tons that are transported each month. It is important to point out that the transactional costs (bunker fuel and storage), on time chartering, are covered by the charterer itself. Consequentially, the TCavg is simply a quantification of the average cost for shipping raw materials on a established route on one the four dry bulk carriers.

The Baltic Dry Index is a very important leading indicator for worldwide business sentiment for several reasons:

1) It is difficult to modify because it is based on pure demand/supply changes which are, in turn, calculated on real orders

2) It is considered to be a leading indicator because orders are usually booked many months in advance (at least 2-3 months because of high intensity traffic in canals and potential port congestions. Think about the ship traffic concentration in the Panama and Suez canals)

3) It is a reliable index because business activities underlying the calculation are all legally certified, financed and paid upfront (none would hire a Panamax ship without having a paid order in place and none would place an order without actually needing raw materials and commodities)

4) It is a very good macroeconomic indicator, as far as shipping raw materials is concerned, because building a dry bulk carrier (whether it is a Handysize, a Supramax, a Panamax or a Capemax ship is irrelevant) takes many years. Therefore, their limited availability makes the tracking easier and more reliable because it means that the largest quantities of shipped raw materials have to necessarily be transported on one of those ships and, consequently, they are being accounted for in the calculation

The Baltic Dry Index is fairly straightforward to understand. In fact, higher or lower fluctuations simply imply a net increase or decrease in the demand for commodities and raw materials. Furthermore, the BDI is an efficient way to measure commodities’ demand because, given the fact that ships are limited and takes years to build, the amount of cargo that needs to be shipped will largely influence the oscillations of the index. The first chart of the present research displays the performance of the Baltic Dry Index since the 30th of June 2009 until the 27th of December 2013:

Baltic Dry Index

The above reported graph shows that the blue line (the actual BDI) has never fully recovered since the peak touched in November 2001 (4,661 points) while the lowest level ever touched was in February 2012 (647 points). It is evident that the 2011–2012 time interval has been rather flat in terms of shipping activity and demand for raw materials because both the quarterly and semi–annual trend lines oscillated laterally for many consecutive months. Nevertheless, the second half of the 2013 (from June onwards) showed an increased number of business activity but the recovery was far from being robust implying that the shipping of raw materials is still lower than it was before the credit crunch. The next chart will attempt to provide clue regarding the volatility of the index on different time perspectives:

Baltic Dry Index: Volatility Spectrum

First of all, it is important to mention that the Baltic Dry Index has a mean reverting volatility which tends to be confined within the 20%–40% thresholds. Also, the above reported graph suggests that the divergence between the volatility in the mid–term (red curve) and the volatility in the long–term (white curve) tends to be lower than the difference between short–term and medium–term volatilities. Volatility analysis is crucial in order to understand the fluctuations of the BDI which is why the next chart has been specifically created to show the volatility distribution of the volatility spectrum over the time period June 2009 – December 2013:

Baltic Dry Index: Volatility Distribution

The above reported chart displays the distribution of the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index in the short–term (ST VOL), medium–term (MT VOL) and long–term (LT VOL). The High, Mid–High, Medium, Mid–Low and Low sections correspond to the different volatility segments in the volatility spectrum. The sections will be now examined one at the time:

High: The ST volatility touched its highest point at 63.51% while MT and LT volatilities reached their respective tops at 62.41% and 54.20%

Mid–High: Mid–High volatilities are higher in the LT and MT than in the ST. In fact, mid–high volatility is 37.64% in the LT, equals 36.45% in the MT and it is approximately 35.05% in the ST

Medium: Medium volatility is higher in the long period than in the short one. Specifically, LT medium volatility is 32.25%, MT medium volatility is 30.36% and ST medium volatility is 27.12%

Mid–Low: Mid–Low volatilities are, even in this case, higher in the LT than in the ST. Specifically, LT mid–low volatility fluctuates around 25.51%, MT medium–low volatility is usually 24.31% while ST’s one is 19.19%

Low: LT volatility touched its lowest point at 13.83%, MT volatility minimum point was reached at 10.67% while in the ST the volatility has never got lower than 6.45%

The distribution analysis of the volatility spectrum has indeed provided very useful information. In fact, the calculation shows that mid–term and long–term volatilities, if we exclude the High segment, tend to systematically be more elevated than short–term volatility. Conversely, the highest spike in volatility was actually achieved in the short–term, although this volatility segment proved to be the least volatile of all. Why is that? What does this entail? The reason behind such phenomenon is the following: long and medium term volatilities are higher than the short term one as a consequence of the fact that the mean reverting pressure is lower in the LT and MT than in the ST. Specifically, such phenomenon implies that long–term and medium–term volatility explosions are more persistent and more ample, in terms of magnitude, and consequentially need more time to be “reabsorbed”. Besides, the fact that the highest volatility point ever reached by the Baltic Dry Index (63.51%) was actually achieved in the short–term implies that, in this segment, volatility explosions can be immediate and rather large although they tend to mean revert quickly. The strong persistency in medium and long term volatility explosions and the higher propensity to a quicker mean reverting process in the short–term volatility can be better understood by looking at the following serial correlation plot:

Baltic Dry Index: serial correlation

The chart shows 4 blocks. Each parallelepiped indicates the serial correlation amongst BDI data. The first on the left displays daily serial correlation, the second one from the left refers to weekly serial correlation, the third one from the left shows the monthly serial correlation while the last one refers to quarterly serial correlation. The interpretation of the above reported chart is fairly simple: the data from Baltic Dry Index tends to have a stronger bond in the very short term, a weak link on a weekly basis and they seem to have no relationship as far as monthly and quarterly data are concerned. The significant spread, between the first and the last two parallelepipeds, proves the point that short term volatility explosions tend to mean revert rather quickly and that actual data do not have any strong relationship in the long–term. The serial correlation plot also gives insights about the nature of the Baltic Dry Index itself: poor serial correlation in the long–term is a clear reflection of an ever–changing demand level for commodities and raw materials. The final chart highlights any inter–market relationship between the Baltic Dry Index and the most important asset classes in the world:

Baltic Dry Index: Correlation Matrix

The correlation matrix emphasizes the rapport with 3 markets in particular: Euro, American Treasury Bonds and German Bunds. The correlation between the Baltic Dry Index and Euro futures, over the 2009–2013 period, is without a doubt, the most robust (+0.47). The strong bond with the Single currency is predominantly due to the fact that approximately the 40% of the shipping transactional costs are due to bunker fuel. Bunker fuel (also known as fuel oil) is priced in US dollar but, since Euro is the largest currency component of the Dollar Index, every fluctuation in the European coinage will cause significant changes in the hiring fees charged to ship raw materials around the world. Consequently, the Baltic Dry Index, which accounts for the hiring fees charged for Handysize, Supramax, Panamax and Capemax ships, will be inevitably influenced by such variable. The remaining asset classes that display a good, although negative, correlation to the BDI are the 2 government debt world benchmarks: American T–Bonds and German Bunds. The reason American (-0.43) and German (-0.38) sovereign debt securities have an inverse link to the BDI is probably: hedging. In fact, the risk caused by taking positions on Baltic Dry Index futures and options contracts, traded through the Baltic Exchange, is usually counterbalanced via stable government bonds. The low correlation among the BDI and the so–called risky assets (DAX, WTI Crude Oil and Mini S&P500) is predominantly due to business cycles and commercial demand (commercials need to place their orders for raw materials 2–3 months ahead in order to account for production time, manage risk and ensure a continuous flow of commodity supply). On the other hand, the fact that Japanese Yen and Gold do not have a strong relationship with the BDI implies that fund managers, commercials and commodity traders prefer hedging their BDI market exposure using the aforementioned treasury markets.

HyperVolatility Researches related to the present one:

The US Dollar Index

Oil Fundamentals: Upstream, Midstream, Downstream & Geopolitics

Oil Fundamentals: Reserves and Import/Export Dynamics

Oil Fundamentals: Crude Oil Grades and Refining Process

The Oil Arbitrage: Brent vs WTI

The HyperVolatility Forecast Service enables you to receive statistical analysis and projections for 3 asset classes of your choice on a weekly basis. Every member can select up to 3 markets from the following list: E-Mini S&P500 futures, WTI Crude Oil futures, Euro futures, VIX Index, Gold futures, DAX futures, Treasury Bond futures, German Bund futures, Japanese Yen futures and FTSE/MIB futures.

Send us an email at info@hypervolatility.com with the list of the 3 asset classes you would like to receive the projections for and we will guarantee you a 14 day trial

Commodities and Currencies: Inter-Market Analysis

Commodity markets are becoming increasingly important in today’s financial scenario. Many investors, traders and fund managers are now shifting their attention towards asset classes such as Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Gold, Silver, Wheat, Coffee or Sugar. Furthermore, the credit crunch brought a great deal of market instability and many equity indices, as well as single stocks, have been abandoned by or lost their appeal to many market players. There are several liquid commodities in the world but the present research will concentrate on, arguably, the heaviest in terms of volume: WTI Crude Oil, Gold and Henry Hub Natural Gas. It is important to point out that the European oil benchmark, the Brent Crude, has been deliberately omitted from the aforementioned list, although very liquid, but it will be the focus of another research. This research will present the results of an inter–market analysis where we compare and contrast the performances of above mentioned 3 commodities against a basket of currencies. The currency exchanges that have been selected are either very liquid (Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc) or related to countries whose trade balances heavily rely on commodities and this is the case for South Africa, Canada, Australia and New Zealand (some market players can also refer to these exchanges as commodity currencies). The research has been conducted using a database consisting of daily data ranging from October 2011 until the 25th of June 2013. Consequently, our study aims to capture the medium–to–long term relationship that WTI Crude Oil, Gold and Henry Hub Natural Gas futures have with those exchanges. The first commodity that will be examined is the WTI Crude Oil:

WTI Crude

The American crude oil chart shows a very strong relationship with Euro, Swiss Franc and South African Rand. However, the correlation is strong and positive for Swiss Franc (+0.36) and Euro (+0.34) but it is negative for the South African currency (-0.34). The positive connection with the Euro is a consequence of the fact that the Single currency is responsible for the 56.7% of US Dollar Index fluctuations. The Swiss Franc, being a European currency, shows a robust positive correlation to the WTI (+0.36), however, the chart signals that the Swiss Franc is not a good hedging tool for the American oil market. Usually, the Swiss currency is adopted by many portfolio managers and market players as a hedge against volatile periods in risky assets but, when it comes to WTI oil, this is not the case. The negative correlation with the South African Rand (-0.34) is given by the fact that South Africa is the second largest oil refiner in Africa. Nevertheless, almost all the oil that is imported belongs to OPEC countries. Consequently, the Rand is more linked to the price of oils extracted from OPEC countries than to the American West Texas Intermediate. Finally, if we exclude a “mild correlation” with the Australian and Canadian Dollars, the remaining exchanges (Yens, British Pounds and New Zealand Dollars) do not show a great sensitivity to WTI price changes. The next market under examination will be Gold:

Gold

The gold market has very good positive connections with many asset classes. If we exclude New Zealand Dollars (+0.07), the Euro (+0.20) and the South African Rand (-0.65), gold futures are strongly bounded to many exchanges. The strong positive correlation to Australian Dollars (+0.62) is obvious because Australia is one of the largest gold exporters in the world while the +0.69 rapport with the Japanese Yen is a signal that many market players started to use again gold as a hedging tool for their portfolios. Furthermore, Canada (+0.57) has large gold mines while the UK (+0.63) is a strong importer and it primarily purchases gold for luxury goods or investment purposes. Once again the South African Rand is a standalone market because its strong negative correlation to gold futures (-0.65) is not just due to portfolio hedging but also to strong fundamental reasons. Specifically, the South African mining industry has been subject to many strikes in the last 3 – 4 years that greatly influenced its extraction rate. Consequently, the SA gold’s output precipitously fell and this could have caused a major loss of “sensitivity” between gold prices and the local currency. The next commodity market is the Henry Hub Natural Gas:

Henry Hub Natural Gas

The Henry Hub is the core distribution point in the natural gas pipeline scheme located in Louisiana, USA. Natural gas futures traded on the NYMEX have been named after it because of the great logistic importance of this area. The above reported chart shows an unstable negative correlation to Australian, Canadian Dollars and British Pounds (-0.22, -0.30 and -0.33 respectively), a rather weak but positive link to New Zealand Dollars and Euros and no correlation at all to Swiss Franc futures(-0.03). On the other hand, there are two currencies that are strongly correlated to natural gas prices: Japanese Yen and the South African Rand. The reasons Japanese Yens have a robust negative relationship (-0.57) to the Henry Hub is that the Asian country has recently doubled its nat–gas consumption but the local demand is almost entirely satisfied via imports (circa 4,500 billion cubic feet). Furthermore, the Japanese Yen is often considered to be a “safe haven” type of investment, hence, many market players will tend to buy the Asian currency when risky assets plummet. The negative relationship between Yens and nat–gas prices is an evident sign that many portfolio managers tend to hedge their natural gas positions with the Japanese Yen. Conversely, the great explosion in natural gas consumption in South Africa (over 160 billion cubic feet in 2011 against 58.2 billions in 2000) and the low import levels make the South African currency rather “susceptible” to oscillations in natural gas prices.

Let’s summarize the main findings in a few bullet points:

WTI CRUDE OIL

1) The correlation is strong and positive with Swiss Franc (+0.36) and Euro (+0.34) but it is negative for the South African currency (-0.34)

2) South Africa is the second largest oil refiner in Africa but almost all the in–flowing oil is imported from OPEC countries. This explains the negative correlation (-0.34) with the Rand

GOLD

1) Australia is one of the largest gold exporters in the world, hence, Australian Dollars are strongly connected to this commodity (+0.62)

2) The +0.69 rapport with the Japanese Yen implies that gold is still considered to be a hedging tool for portfolio risk

3) Canadian Dollars are positively correlated to gold (+0.57) because Canada has large gold mines

4) There is a positive and robust link between gold and British Pounds (+0.63) because UK is a strong importer and Great Britain buys gold for luxury goods or investment purposes

5) The South African gold’s output plunged in recent years due to several strikes in the mining industry. Hence, the drop in the SA gold extraction rate could have caused the negative connection between gold prices and the local currency (-0.65)

HENRY HUB NATURAL GAS

1) There is a robust negative relationship with Japanese Yens (-0.57) because Japan increased its natural gas consumption but it imports almost all the natural gas needed (circa 4,500 billion cubic feet)

2) Negative correlation with the Japanese Yen (-0.57) implies that natural gas portfolios tends to be hedged with the Asian currency

3) The large increase in natural gas consumption in South Africa (over 160 billion cubic feet in 2011 against 58.2 billions in 2000) and a strong local production strengthened the link between the South African currency and natural gas prices (+0.73)

All traders and investors interested in trading commodities and in particular Crude Oil and Gold are strongly advised to read the following HyperVolatility researches:

Commodity Volatility Indices: OVX and GVZ

“The Pricing of Commodity Options”

“Gold Market Performance in 2012”

“The Oil Arbitrage: Brent vs WTI”

“Trading Gold and Silver: A Realized Volatility Approach”

The HyperVolatility Forecast Service enables you to receive statistical analysis and projections for 3 asset classes of your choice on a weekly basis. Every member can select up to 3 markets from the following list: E-Mini S&P500 futures, WTI Crude Oil futures, Euro futures, VIX Index, Gold futures, DAX futures, Treasury Bond futures, German Bund futures, Japanese Yen futures and FTSE/MIB futures.

Send us an email at info@hypervolatility.com with the list of the 3 asset classes you would like to receive the projections for and we will guarantee you a 14 day trial.

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