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E-Mini Crude Oil Futures Volatility Forecast (28/11/2010)

The E-Mini Futures market is going through a period of great uncertainty because the dollar has been subject to great swings. The actual volatility is around 1.8% (28.5 annualised) and it seems not to signal any particular direction. However, the appreciation of the dollar could drive the market down quite easily since all the attempts to push prices higher failed.

Furthermore, many companies have stored almost all the oil they needed and this is another important factor that should be taken into account because the demand could suddenly diminish and the price would be inevitably affected by this.

The staff of HyperVolatility is still bearish on this market even if the probability of a sideways movement this week is not completely to exclude.

Should the market keep going down we would easily have volatility readings around 2.2% (34% annualised) and should that be the case the price should plummet to $ 75 – $ 78 area.

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