E-Mini Crude Oil Futures Volatility Forecast (23/01/2011)

The last week we predicted a drop of the price in the $ 89 a barrel accompanied by a rise in volatility which was thought to reach the 1.6% (25.3% annualised) and we are proud to say that the staff of HyperVolatility was right again.

The actual volatility plot seems to suggest a further boost of the market fluctuations rate but if we look at the previous months’ estimations it is not difficult to realise that the 2.1% (33.3% annualised) level is quite high.

However, it is likely for the volatility to drop slightly in the short term and such a phenomenon could either maintain the price in the actual area or promote a further rally to the $ 90 a barrel.

The staff of HyperVolatility is moderately bullish on the E-Mini Crude Oil futures although a sideways movement could be likely to occur over the next days with prices trading in a range between the $ 89 – 91.5 a barrel.

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