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E-Mini Nasdaq Futures Volatility Forecast (05/10/2011)

E-Mini Nasdaq futures opened at 2,227 on Monday, touched 2,254 on Tuesday, dropped to 2,220 on Wednesday, settled around 2,192 on Thursday and closed at 2,123 on Friday.

The current volatility is 1.7% (26.9% annualised) and the TGARCH plot is now showing an upward sloping curve which is suggesting that further market swings could be expected in the upcoming days. However, this level has been hardly violated in the past and it is reasonable to guess that a retracement of the volatility curve will occur.

The HyperVolatility team is moderately bullish E-Mini Nasdaq futures because the conditional variance should plunge and favour a recovery of the price action which could eventually retest the 2,300 threshold by Friday.

 

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