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Euro Futures Volatility Forecast (27/09/2011)

Euro Futures opened at 1.36 on Monday, remained unchanged on Tuesday, plummeted to 1.35 on Wednesday, plunged to 1.346 on Thursday and closed at 1.35 on Friday.

The volatility is now 0.8% (12.6% annualised) and the TGARCH curve is neither upward nor downward sloping even if the very last part of the plot seems suggesting a shy increase in the conditional variance. However, the fluctuations rate is now very far from its medium term equilibrium point which ranges between the 0.73% – 0.77% area (11.5% – 12.2% in annual terms).

The first half of the week could see the Single currency to depreciate against the US dollar because the oscillation rate is still looking at the northern part of the chart but it is likely that the rumours about the 2 -3 trillion euro package to save Europe from financial catastrophe will provoke some speculative buying.

European leaders are now calling for a more concrete action to bail out Greece (later is better than never) and to prevent the crises from spreading to too-large-to-be-saved countries (read Italy and Spain): we will see if facts will follow words because the latter are cheap but the former are not!!!

The HyperVolatility team is moderately bullish Euro futures, even if the first half of the week could see another downside move, and the conditional variance should soft over the next trading hours whilst the price action should eventually retest the 1.3600 – 1.3700 area by Friday.

Needless to say that an ulterior macroeconomics shocks would irremediably drag futures prices down as more and more investors will rush to buy US dollars.

 

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