Japanese Yen Futures Volatility Forecast (19/09/2011)

Japanese Yen Futures opened at 129.1, rose on 130 on Tuesday, touched 130.45 on Wednesday, achieved 130.48 and closed at 130.1 on Friday.

The volatility is now 0.51% (8% annualised) and the TGARCH plot is showing a slightly upward sloping curve which seems to suggest that the upcoming trading hours will see an increase in the fluctuations rate which a consequent drop of the price action.

The concerns about Europe and the great uncertainty surrounding the destiny of Greece , which seems to be really on the brink of collapse, would probably push investors towards safe haven again, if they have ever left them at all, implying that the buying pressure could augment and lift Japanese Yen futures as well as the volatility curve.

The HyperVolatility team is bullish Japanese Yen futures because the symmetric effect between volatility and price action during turmoil is an indication that the buyers will probably get back into the game and purchase some more assets in order to diversify the risk of their portfolios. Hence, we believe that futures prices should increase and eventually retest the 132 threshold by Friday.

The FOMC statement on Wednesday could potentially change the picture should new monetary policies being released.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Go back to top